欧佩克：今年全球石油需求将日增233万桶
来源：中国石化新闻网 2023-05-15 08:33:59
欧佩克5月对其全球年度石油需求预测做了细微调整
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欧佩克预计今年全球石油需求将日增233万桶
欧佩克：亚洲市场每天80万桶的强劲增长可能会被其他地区的下行风险所抵消
中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2023年5月11日报道，欧佩克连续第3个月几乎没有改变其对全球石油需求增长的预测，欧佩克现在预计今年全球石油需求将日增233万桶，即同比增长2.3%，比之前预测的日增232万桶略有增加。据欧佩克称，亚洲市场石油需求日增80万桶的强劲增长可能会被诸如美国债务上限等下行风险所抵消。
欧佩克在报告中表示：“由于亚洲经济表现好于预期，欧佩克做出了小幅上调，而由于经济挑战可能会对石油需求造成压力，其他地区的预期将略有下降。”
过去一年，各能源机构对全球石油需求增长的预测普遍变得更加悲观。
美国能源信息署（EIA）的最新全球石油需求增长预测是，在专家们所谓的欧佩克呼吁(即全球需求减去非欧佩克供应)中，今年全球石油日需求量将下降42万桶，比其去年7月的预测每天低187万桶。
其他机构预计今年全球石油需求增长乏力：渣打银行预计仅日增6.3万桶，比其去年7月的预测每天减少141万桶，而国际能源署(IEA)预计今年全球石油需求将日增40万桶，比其去年7月的预测每天低232.6万桶。
这一切的结果是，这四家机构至少都预计今年全球石油需求会有一些增长，然而它们似乎无法就增长幅度达成共识。
至少有一位专家预测，今年全球石油需求将创下历史新高。渣打银行的大宗商品专家预测，今年8月份全球石油日需求将创下1.0224亿桶的历史新高，超过2019年8月创下的1.022亿桶的最高纪录。
乐观的解读是，这是一个历史高点；悲观的观点是全球石油需求花了不少于4年的时间才回到之前的高点。事实上，渣打银行估计，如果在这4年里一切如常，全球石油需求将再次出现日增500万桶。更好的是，渣打银行预计11月和12月的全球石油需求将创下历史新高，到2024年6月全球石油日需求将首次超过1.03亿桶。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
OPEC: World Oil Demand To Rise By 2.33 Million Bpd In 2023
· OPEC made a very slight change to its annual oil demand forecast this month.
· OPEC now sees global oil demand grow by 2.33 million bpd this year.
· OPEC: strong growth in the Asian market of 800,000 b/d is likely to be offset by downside risks elsewhere.
For the third month running, OPEC has barely changed its forecast of global oil demand, predicting growth of 2.33 million barrels per day, or 2.3% Y/Y growth, good for a very slight increase from its previous forecast of 2.32 million barrels per day. According to OPEC, strong growth in the Asian market of 800,000 b/d is likely to be offset by downside risks elsewhere such as the U.S. debt ceiling.
"Minor upward adjustments were made due to the better than expected performance in Asian economy, while other regions are expected to see slight declines due to economic challenges that are likely to weigh on oil demand," OPEC said in the report.
Over the past year, energy agencies have generally grown more bearish with their forecasts on oil demand growth.
The EIA’s latest growth prediction of a decline of 420,000 barrels per day (kb/d) in what experts refer to as the call on OPEC (i.e. global demand minus non-OPEC supply) in the current year, a level 1.87 million barrels per day (mb/d) lower than its July 2022 forecast.
Other agencies expect lackluster growth: Standard Chartered sees “the call” growing by just 63,000 b/d, 1.41mb/d less than its July 2022 forecast, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects growth of 400kb/d, 2.326mb/d below its July 2022 forecast.
The upshot of it all is that all four agencies at least expect some growth, though they can’t seem to come close to finding consensus on the magnitude.
At least one expert has predicted that oil demand will hit an all-time high in the current year. Commodity experts at StanChart have predicted that global oil demand will set a new all-time high of 102.24mb/d in August, surpassing the previous record of 102.2mb/d set in August 2019.
The bullish interpretation simply is that this is an all-time high; the bearish one is
that it has taken no less than four years for global demand just to get back to the previous high. Indeed, StanChart reckons that had it been business-as-usual during those four years, global oil demand would have increased by another 5mb/d. Even better, StanChart sees oil demand setting fresh all-time highs in both November and December with demand set to rise above 103mb/d for the first time in June 2024.
（责任编辑：黄振 审核：蒋文娟 ）
